Typhoon Yutu poised to pound Philippines, looking to bend north toward Taiwan

Typhoon Yutu poised to pounce on the Philippines tomorrow, likely to shift north and bring heavy rain to Taiwan by Halloween

NOAA animated GIF of Typhoon Yutu.

NOAA animated GIF of Typhoon Yutu.

TAIPEI (Taiwan News) -- Typhoon Yutu is racing towards the northern Philippine island of Luzon today, with signal 2 and signal 3 alerts issued across the northern Philippines, while the typhoon is predicted to later bend north and bring rain to Taiwan starting on Halloween and lasting through Saturday.

As of 2 a.m. this morning, Typhoon Yutu was located 850 kilometers southeast of Taiwan's southernmost tip of Eluanbi, moving west at 17 kilometers per hour (kph), packing maximum sustained winds of 172 kph and gusts of 208 kph, according to the Central Weather Bureau (CWB). The CWB predicts that by Oct. 30, northern and eastern Taiwan will begin to feel the affects of the typhoon's periphery, and by Oct. 31, it could shift north and combine with a northeastern monsoon to dump heavy rain on Taiwan for the rest of the week.

In the Philippines, Typhoon Yutu (Rosita in the Philippines) is expected to make landfall in Isabela Province on the island of Luzon early tomorrow morning. The northern Philippines is bracing for heavy rains, floods, storm surges and landslides as Yutu strikes.

A signal 2 has been issued by Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) in 10 areas, including Cagayan, Isabela, Aurora, Quirino, Polillo Island, Kalinga, Mt. Province, Ifugao, Benguet and Nueva Vizcaya. While a signal 1 has been issued in the areas:

  • Ilocos Norte
  • Ilocos Sur
  • La Union
  • Pangasinan
  • Abra
  • Apayao
  • Batanes
  • Babuyan Group of Islands
  • Nueva Ecija
  • Pampanga
  • Tarlac
  • Northern Quezon
  • Rizal
  • Bulacan
  • Metro Manila
  • Laguna
  • Batangas
  • Bataan
  • Zambales
  • Cavite
  • Camarines Norte

A Signal No. 1 is issued for areas were where winds of 30 to 60 kilometers per hour (kph) can be expected within 24 hours, a Signal No. 2 indicates of winds of 60 to 100 kph and a Signal No. 3 warns of winds ranging between 100 to 185 kph.

Meteorologist Daniel Wu (吳德榮) said that, as Yutu nears, water vapor in northern and eastern Taiwan will begin to increase, gradually raising the possibility of rain by tomorrow evening. From Oct. 31 to Nov. 3, Yutu will enter the South China Sea, start to shift north, and possibly combine with a northeastern monsoon to bring heavy rain to northern and eastern Taiwan. However, Wu emphasized that there is still much uncertainty about Yutu's course and its affect on Taiwan, and more observation is needed.

Wu said that Yutu is being guided by the Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH), a subtropical belt of atmospheric pressure over the Northern Pacific Ocean, west toward the northern Philippine island of Luzon, where it will make impact today and tomorrow. The WPSH has become dubbed "Taiwan's shield" because it has steered all typhoons either north or south of the country this year.

Wu said that Yutu will be greatly weakened by the terrain of Luzon, cold air from a northeastern monsoon, the decrease in ocean heat content (OHC), and increased vertical wind sheer. However, he said it could regain some strength when it hits the warm waters of the South China Sea, where it is likely to turn north and combine forces with a northeastern monsoon, but the future behavior of the typhoon is still highly unpredictable.

As for temperatures in Taiwan, Tamsui yesterday saw a low of 15.1 degrees Celsius, the lowest temperature so far this fall. As Taiwan will continue to be influenced by a northeastern monsoon, lows in northern Taiwan will range between 16 to 18 degrees, while eastern, southern, and southeastern Taiwan will see a low of 20 degrees.

Highs in northern and eastern Taiwan will range between 25 and 28 degrees., while southern and southeastern Taiwan will see up to 30 degrees. The temperature differences between night and day in western Taiwan will be significant, therefore, residents are advised to wear a jacket when going out in the early morning and late at night.

A strong wind advisory for all of Taiwan was issued by the CWB late this morning and will stay in effect until Thursday morning (Nov. 1).

CWB map of Typhoon Yutu's predicted path.

JTWC map of Typhoon Yutu's predicted path.

Japan Meteorological Agency map of Typhoon Yutu's predicted path over next 5 days.

Tropical Storm Risk map of Typhoon Yutu's predicted path over next 120 hours.

Models of six different weather agencies. (Map from typhoon2000)

Animated Windy.com map showing Typhoon Yutu's projected path over coming week.

NOAA satellite image of Typhoon Yutu.

NOAA animated GIF of Western Pacific.

NOAA animated GIF of Typhoon Yutu.