TAIPEI (Taiwan News) - Amid heightened US-China tensions, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised Taiwan's GDP growth forecasts for 2018 and 2019 upward to 2.7% and 2.4% respectively in its latest World Economic Outlook report issued on Monday.
Despite worries reflected in Taiwan's stock market, the IMF doesn't think the disruption triggered by the trade war would kill off growth and drag the global economy into recession: the global growth for 2018-19 is projected to remain steady at its 2017 level, though its pace is less vigorous than projected in its April report. Its forecast for China's 2018 GDP growth remains unchanged at 6.6%, while revised downward by 0.2 percentage points for 2019 to 6.2%.
Taiwan is also the only country among the Four Asian Dragons whose economic forecasts have been raised for 2018 and 2019, to 2.7% and 2.4%, respectively, in terms of real GDP, up 0.8 and 0.4 percentage points from its previous forecasts in April.
In the latest report, Taiwan's major trade partner South Korea is projected to grow 2.8% and 2.6% for 2018 and 2019, respectively, downward revisions by 0.2 and 0.3 percentage points from previous forecasts.
IMF's forecast for Singapore's economic outlook remains steady at 2.9% for 2018, but has been revised downward by 0.2 percentage points to 2.5% for the following year.
IMF's forecasts for Hong Kong's economic outlook are mixed: it raises its forecast for 2018 by 0.2 percentage points to 3.8%, while cutting its forecast for 2019 by 0.3 percentage points to 2.9%.