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New era about to arrive: Hsu

TAIPEI (Taiwan News) – The January 16 presidential and legislative elections are not about winning or losing, but mark the advent of a new era, former Democratic Progressive Party Chairman Hsu Hsin-liang said recently.
DPP Chairwoman Tsai Ing-wen has been leading in nearly all opinion polls, sometimes by margins of more than 20 percent, while the Legislative Yuan could also for the first time see a majority for her party and its allies.
The ruling Kuomintang could turn into a small party or at least, a less than important party, with its role as an alternative to the DPP being taken over by the third force in politics, Hsu said. “This era will last long, or more simply said, it will be the era of complete democracy.”
The former DPP leader has developed into somewhat of an accurate forecaster of Taiwanese political events. On September 23 last year, he said independent Ko Wen-je was certain to be elected mayor of Taipei City on November 29 of that year, because opinion polls had given him at least 40 percent over the previous three months. If the turnout would be 70 percent, then Ko would receive 57.14 percent of the vote, according to Hsu.
In the end, voter turnout stood at 70.46 percent and Ko received 57.16 percent of ballots cast, showing Hsu’s prediction to be off only by a tiny 0.02 percent.
On October 27 last year, the former DPP leader also said that 2015 was certain to see a summit between President Ma Ying-jeou and Chinese leader Xi Jinping. After a defeat in the November 29 local elections, the only thing left for Ma and the KMT to do was arrange a meeting with Xi, Hsu said at the time. The summit of course took place in Singapore on November 7 this year.
The trend of Hsu’s latest prediction about the KMT shrinking in size and being replaced by the third force in Taiwan politics might be right, but there is still a question of timing. In last year’s Taipei City mayoral election, the unpopular KMT candidate, Sean Lien, still received 600,000 votes, with those voters unlikely to be replaced or to change their minds in a near future.
Among the third force, the New Power Party could still be considered too close to the DPP, while others are more likely to replace the Taiwan Solidarity Union than the KMT. The alliance between the Green Party Taiwan and the Social Democratic Party is also unlikely to make much headway for the time being.
Hsu might be right about his general prediction, but it might take more time than he expects to come to fruition.
(translated by The Taiwan News editor).


Updated : 2021-09-19 02:08 GMT+08:00