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Academia Sinica cuts GDP growth forecast for 2015 to 0.75% (update)

Academia Sinica cuts GDP growth forecast for 2015 to 0.75% (update)

Taipei, Dec. 24 (CNA) Academia Sinica, Taiwan's top academic research institution, said Thursday that it has cut its forecast for the country's gross domestic product (GDP) for 2015, citing poor export performance and a sluggish global economy.

The flat economic growth for the year showed the fragile nature of Taiwan's industrial structure, which makes the country vulnerable to changes in the regional trade, said Ray Yeutien Chou, a research fellow at Academia Sinica. He predicted that 2016 will also be a tough year.

Academia Sinica said it has downgraded Taiwan's 2015 GDP growth forecast to 0.75 percent from an earlier estimate of a 3.24 percent rise made in July, joining several other local think tanks in holding a downbeat mood for the export-oriented economy.

The figure is the lowest forecast for 2015 among local research institutions. Academia Sinica attributed the low economic growth to poor export performance and the sluggish global economy.

Predicting Taiwan's economy for 2016, Chou said that although advanced countries will continue to see stable economic growth next year, Taiwan's economic recovery will be limited, given the impact of low energy prices and the U.S. interest rate rise, as well as the unstable economies in emerging markets.

Meanwhile, the institution said that Taiwan's real merchandise and services exports after inflationary adjustments are expected to see a negative 0.48 percent growth for 2015, citing the impact of the sluggish global economy and the red supply chain in China, which has come into direct competition with Taiwanese companies.

Amid the decrease in domestic demand, Taiwan's private consumption for 2015 is expected to grow 2.5 percent, said Academia Sinica. It added that the consumer confidence index for 2016 is expected to be at 1.78 percent.

It also predicted private investment growth of 2.09 percent next year.

On the economic growth for 2016, Academia Sinica put its forecast for 2016 at 1.74 percent, predicting that the global economy will see mild growth next year.

On Wednesday, the Yuanta-Polaris Research Institute, one of Taiwan's leading think tanks, said it has lowered Taiwan's 2015 GDP growth forecast to 0.89 percent from an earlier estimate of a 1.15 percent rise made in September. Other economic think tanks such as the Taiwan Institute of Economic Research and the Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research, have also downgraded their forecasts to 0.83 percent and 0.93 percent, respectively.

However, the government appears more upbeat, anticipating in November that the local economy will grow 1.06 percent in 2015, although the forecast was a downgrade from an earlier estimate of a 1.56 percent rise.

As for the 2016 economic growth, the Directorate General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS) has predicted a growth of 2.32 percent. (By Chen Cheng-wei and Elaine Hou)


Updated : 2021-09-23 13:30 GMT+08:00