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Flat panel prices likely to rebound in Q1: analyst

Flat panel prices likely to rebound in Q1: analyst

Flat panel prices are likely to stage a rebound in the first quarter of next year, when the impact resulting from inventory adjustments fades, according to market information advisory firm IHS DisplaySearch.

In a seminar held by the advisory firm in Taipei Tuesday, DisplaySearch vice president David Hsieh said that prices of the benchmark 43-inch flat screens have fallen to around US$200 per square meter, a level which has been low due to continued inventory adjustments.

Hsieh said that prices of other large-sized screens, such as 48-inch and 50-inch are expected to follow suit by falling and as long as their prices drop to around US$220 per square meter in the first quarter, the overall prices for screens are expected to rebound by then.

In the wake of the current supply glut in the global flat panel market, sales of flat screens in the world for 2015 are expected to fall 3 percent from a year earlier, and sales for 2016 could continue a downward trend, Hsieh said.

In 2015, the flat panel supply is expected to grow 8 percent, but demand is likely to rise only 5 percent, indicating the impact from an oversupply, Hsieh said. He said that flat panel prices are expected to continue to fall in December before bouncing back in the first quarter of next year.

He said that 2015 and 2016 will be two difficult years for flat panel suppliers worldwide.

While demand for personal computers is expected to weaken further in the near future, TV panels could buck the downtrend to give a boost to the overall flat panel industry, Hsieh said.

TV panel sales are likely to grow by 5-6 percent over the next few years as consumers shift their purchases to models over 40 inches from the current 30-inch plus screens, Hsieh said.

LCD TVs enjoyed a rapid surge of 100 million units in sales during the 2008-2009 period, Hsieh said, and massive replacement waves are expected to reemerge between 2017 and 2018 to reignite quick growth of LCD TVs.

Meanwhile, Hsieh warned that as China is gearing up to expand its flat panel production, it is likely that China's production capacity will top Taiwan's in 2016 and surpass South Korea's in 2017. But Hsieh did not provide details about the production capacity forecasts of the three markets.

Hsieh said that China has focused on the development of 8.5th generation flat panel plants which will mainly roll out large-sized screens, while China still lags behind its rivals in terms of production technology.

He said that AU Optronics Corp. and Innolux Corp., two major flat panel makers in Taiwan, are expected to remain profitable in 2015, but with China's production capacity growing rapidly, Taiwan will have to shift to specialty products to maintain their bottom lines.

Updated : 2021-09-18 21:48 GMT+08:00