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UBS Securities trims Taiwan growth forecast to 1.1%

UBS Securities trims Taiwan growth forecast to 1.1%

Taipei, Nov. 3 (CNA) Swiss brokerage firm UBS Securities has trimmed its forecast for Taiwan's economic growth this year in the wake of disappointing results in the third quarter and an expected marginal boost from the government's upcoming stimulus package. In a research note issued Monday, UBS Securities estimated Taiwan's gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2015 at 1.1 percent, down slightly from its earlier forecast of 1.2 percent made in late October. The revision came after the Directorate General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS) said on Oct. 30 that Taiwan's economy contracted 1.01 percent in the third quarter, well short of the government's forecast of 0.1 percent growth. Looking ahead, UBS Securities expected the country's economic conditions to remain lackluster in the fourth quarter despite the government's planned NT$4.1 billion (US$126 million) short-term consumption stimulus package to boost the local economy. Under the package, the government plans to provide a NT$1,000-NT$2,000 subsidy for the purchase of energy efficient household appliances, NT$2,000 for upgrades to 4G handsets from 2G, and subsidies for hotel stays. "Relative to the size of Taiwan's economy, which UBS's economics team estimates at NT$16.8 trillion in 2015 in terms of nominal GDP, we believe the stimulus package will have a very limited impact on the overall economy given the difference in scale," said William Dong (???), equities and research head of UBS Securities' Taipei branch. "Despite the stimulus package, we do not expect a quick turnaround in consumer discretionary spending due to the slowdown in exports," Dong wrote in the research note. (By Jeffrey Wu)


Updated : 2021-09-19 07:28 GMT+08:00