Alexa
  • Directory of Taiwan

ANZ cuts Taiwan's GDP growth forecasts for 2015, 2016

ANZ cuts Taiwan's GDP growth forecasts for 2015, 2016

Taipei, Sept. 12 (CNA) Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. (ANZ) has lowered its forecasts of Taiwan's gross domestic product (GDP) growth for 2015 and 2016 by taking a weaker-than-expected export performance into account. ANZ has trimmed its estimate for Taiwan's GDP growth for 2015 to 1.30 percent from an earlier forecast of a 1.94 percent made in July, while also significantly downgrading its prediction of Taiwan's GDP growth for 2016 to 2.04 percent, from 3.8 percent. The less optimistic forecast in Taiwan's 2015 economic growth echoed a move made by Taiwan's Directorate General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS) in mid-August to lower Taiwan's GDP growth to 1.56 percent from 3.28 percent. The DGBAS cited falling exports as a reason. At the same time, some market analysts have even raised fears that Taiwan could be struggling to maintain GDP growth at 1 percent for this year if external trade continues to contract. The DGBAS has predicted that Taiwan's GDP growth for 2016 will grow 2.70 percent. In August, Taiwan's exports fell 14.8 percent from a year earlier, marking the seventh consecutive month in which the country's outbound sales registered a year-on-year decline. In a research report, ANZ said that the global electronics industry is faced with downside risks in the wake of weakening global demand, and as the high-tech sector serves as the backbone of Taiwan's exports, the country has felt the pinch from the falling demand. The bank said that growth of China's economy, in particular, has showed signs of slowing down, which has imposed adversary impact on Taiwan's exports and tourism industry and in turn affected its pace of economic growth. ANZ said that the year-on-year export fall in August in Taiwan was steeper than expected, and it is possible for the island to record a contraction in the third quarter's GDP. According to the DGBAS, Taiwan's GDP is expected to grow only 0.1 percent from a year earlier. To boost the economy, ANZ said, the central bank will likely maintain a high liquidity level by leaving its key interest rates unchanged in the upcoming quarterly policymaking meeting scheduled for Sept. 24. It has kept interest rates intact for the 16th consecutive quarter since the last policymaking meeting held in late June. At that meeting, the central bank decided to maintain a discount rate of 1.875 percent, the rate of accommodations with collateral at 2.25 percent and the rate of accommodations without collateral at 4.125 percent. (By Tsai Yi-chu and Frances Huang)


Updated : 2021-09-20 10:26 GMT+08:00