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Think tank raises forecast for Taiwan's 2014 GDP growth (update)

Think tank raises forecast for Taiwan's 2014 GDP growth (update)

Taipei, July 25 (CNA) The Taiwan Institute of Economic Research (TIER) on Friday raised its forecast for Taiwan's 2014 gross domestic product (GDP) growth, citing a global economic recovery. The TIER has upgraded its forecast for Taiwan's economic growth in 2014 to 3.28 percent from its projection in April of 3.23 percent. Gordon Sun, director of the TIER's Macroeconomic Forecasting Center, said private consumption in the local market has gotten a boost from an improving global economy, referring to the sales growth in the commercial sector. According to the Ministry of Economic Affairs, the revenue generated by retail, wholesale and restaurant businesses in June rose 4.1 percent from a year earlier to NT$1.23 trillion (US$41 billion), recording the 10th consecutive month of year-on-year growth. Sun said the sales growth in the commercial sector, in particular in the retail and restaurant segments, has lifted consumer confidence and made consumers more willing to spend. As a result, the TIER has raised its forecast for Taiwan's private consumption growth for this year to 2.8 percent, up 0.29 percentage points from the April estimate. For investments, however, the research institution has lowered its forecast of the country's fixed capital formation growth by 0.48 percentage points to 2.02 percent, citing lower-than-expected global economic growth in the first quarter and weaker government investments in Taiwan. The institution has also cut its forecast for private investment growth by 0.13 percentage points to 3.32 percent, in light of a higher comparison base in the fourth quarter of last year. Although the global economy is on the road to recovery, global demand for Taiwan-made products has been compromised by rising competition from China and countries in Southeast Asia, which have been gearing up to strengthen their supplies to international brands, the TIER said. Therefore, the TIER has lowered its forecast for Taiwan's merchandise and services export growth by 0.05 percentage points to 4.09 percent, and cut its projection of Taiwan's merchandise exports by 1.08 percentage points to 2.94 percent. Anticipating higher private consumption, the TIER has upgraded its forecast for the growth of Taiwan's merchandise and services imports by 0.29 percentage points to 3.69 percent, and raised its projection for the country's merchandise import growth by 0.05 percentage points to 3.35 percent. The think tank also revised its estimate of Taiwan's consumer price index growth for 2014 by 0.18 percentage points to 1.43 percent. (By Yang Shu-min and Frances Huang)


Updated : 2021-07-29 10:51 GMT+08:00