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Economic Daily News: Economic uncertainty still lurks

Economic Daily News: Economic uncertainty still lurks

Taiwan's exports have grown for eight consecutive months, and the minister of economic affairs recently asserted that the country's economic growth rate for this year will definitely surpass 6 percent and might reach 7-8 percent.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has also raised its forecast for Taiwan's 2010 GDP growth rate to 7.7 percent, from 6.5 percent predicted in April, indicating that Taiwan has left behind the worst of the 2008-2009 global economic meltdown.
The quick recovery is indeed encouraging, but we cannot afford to be too upbeat or too optimistic about our economic prospects for the rest of the year, given that performances in the first half were historically buoyant because of an extremely low comparative baseline from 2009.
Exports grew an impressive 49 percent in the first six months of 2010 to US$132 billion, but the total was actually slightly lower than the US$134.5 billion posted in the first half of 2008, before the global economic crisis hit.
It indicates that Taiwan's exports have still regressed over the past two years.
Meanwhile, Taiwan's imports grew 65 percent in the first half of 2010 to US$119.9 billion, a figure also lower than before the global economic crunch.
Although the IMF predicted that the signing of the cross-strait economic cooperation framework agreement (ECFA) will improve Taiwan's investment climate, investment projects actually carried out in the first six months were only fair, while those for the second half of the year remain unclear.
The IMF, meanwhile, adjusted downward Taiwan's GDP growth for 2011 to 4.3 percent, the lowest among the four Asian Tigers (also including Singapore, Hong Kong and South Korea) . It based its adjustment on concerns that economic prospects in the euro-zone remain unpredictable and that global economic growth may decline in the second half of this year -- factors that will have a direct impact on Taiwan, where exports are a prime engine of economic growth.
(Editorial abstract -- July 18, 2010) (By Deborah Kuo)




Updated : 2021-08-04 02:56 GMT+08:00