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Path of tropical storm Nesat triggers speculation

Weather expert sees the storm pass north of Taipei next Monday

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Tropical storm Nesat's uncertain path (from Peng Chi-ming's Weather Risk Facebook page).

Tropical storm Nesat's uncertain path (from Peng Chi-ming's Weather Risk Facebook page).

TAIPEI (Taiwan News) – As expected, a tropical depression east of the Philippines was upgraded to tropical storm Nesat (尼莎) Wednesday, but speculation about its course toward Taiwan was still rife.

Some predictions have it moving close to northern Taiwan during and just after the coming weekend, but there is no unanimity among forecasters.

Nesat became the ninth tropical storm of this year’s typhoon season Wednesday, and the first one likely to impact the weather in Taiwan, though views about where and when it is likely to cause the most havoc vary widely.

Initial forecasts had the storm approach the island from the south, with the rains and gusts of wind likely to start on Friday, July 28.

However, according to a scenario proposed by weather expert Peng Chi-ming (彭啟明) on his Weather Risk Facebook page, the storm will move north, at first far to the east of the Philippines and Taiwan, but by Saturday July 29, it will start turning west before reaching the area over the sea just north of Taipei on Monday July 31. Nesat would not make landfall in Taiwan, though.

Peng called on the public to wait one more day before making assumptions about the course the storm was going to take.

The Central Weather Bureau earlier saw Nesat approach Taiwan either from the south or along the east coast, with still a lack of details on whether the storm would make landfall or not. Whichever route it followed, it was the most likely to influence the weather in Taiwan during the coming weekend, forecasters said.

Later Wednesday, the bureau also put Nesat's course closer to Taiwan while announcing the possibility that sea warnings might be issued Saturday. Land warnings were not a certainty yet, but they could not be excluded, according to the weather bureau.

Another element to consider was the evolution of tropical storm Noru, which moved east of Japan during the past few days. If a high-pressure area above the Pacific weakened, Noru might attract Nesat away from Taiwan and lead it toward Japan, but if the high-pressure area stayed strong, Nesat might take a westerly turn and approach Taiwan, experts said.