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Editorial: Taiwan on the verge of the Trump era

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Editorial: Taiwan on the verge of the Trump era

(AP photo)

On January 20, the office most frequently connected with the title of most powerful man in the world changes hands, when the first African-American president of the United States, professional politician and Democrat Barack Obama, moves out to make way for abrasive businessman, television host and populist Republican Donald Trump.

The handover has so far provided joy to only a limited number of groups, with the vast majority of domestic and world opinion either terrified or of what a Trump Administration is planning for them.

The new president’s frequent comments at election rallies and on Twitter has assured him tough opposition from a variety of groups such as women, African-Americans, gays and Muslims.

In the global community, only Russia and Taiwan are apparently likely to benefit from a Trump Administration, if at all.

The first sign that changes might be afoot was when Trump accepted a phone call from President Tsai Ing-wen on December 2 to congratulate him with his election victory. The conversation, short though it may have been, broke all precedents, leading observers in Taiwan that not only would Trump at least follow the pro-Taipei line prevalent with conservatives and neo-cons in the Republican Party, but that he might even go one step further and change some of Washington’s practices in the island’s favor.

Trump has repeatedly lashed out at China, on trade, on monetary policy, on the South China Sea island disputes, and on the Taiwan issue. While those verbal attacks could convince Taiwanese that the new U.S. president is not as scary as many take him to be, it is too early to feel triumphant.

Wise advice has been forthcoming from former Premier Yu Shyi-kun, who heads the official Taiwanese delegation attending the January 20 inauguration. He has said that Taiwan should stand aside and let the new administration decide what its China policy is going to be like. All Taipei should do is to remind Washington at appropriate times of the Taiwan Relations Act and of the Six Assurances, Yu said.

The TRA, approved in 1979 by the U.S. to govern unofficial ties with Taipei, nevertheless still allowed Washington to provide defensive weapons. In 1982, the Reagan Administration issued the Six Assurances, which included a promise not to force Taiwan into negotiations with China and not to set a date for an eventual end to arms sales.

The Tsai Administration has shown restraint and played down any triumphalism about the war of words between Trump and China, since its priority and first responsibility is to defend Taiwan’s interests. As Tsai has realized, the best way of doing that will be not by following Trump’s megaphone tactics, but by working under the radar to improve relations with Washington thanks to the many friends it has been cultivating there over the past decades.

Whatever turn relations between Washington and Beijing take, ties linking Washington and Taipei are likely to remain steady and improve if the Tsai Administration plays its cards right and emphasizes its willingness to be a regional peacemaker in tune with U.S. aspirations.

The issue of weapons sales seems to become the major positive development under the Trump Administration, with Washington likely to be less restrictive in what it is willing to sell to Taiwan.

Of course, as a businessman, Trump might regard weapons exports as a trade deal, willing to sell anything, but only if it’s at the right price, which might be tough for Taiwan in the present difficult budgetary climate, with the opposition likely to complain about the Americans only selling “scrap metal.”

A more extreme example of potential pro-Taiwan is the proposal by former Ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton, now a key Trump adviser, to push for the stationing of U.S. troops in Taiwan, a move seemingly unrealistic and in any event likely to face strong resistance from China. The suggestion, made in a Wall Street Journal op-ed piece, shows that absolutely anything can be put on the table, even if the end result is unlikely to come true.

While Bolton couched the proposal in terms of appeasing protests by residents of Japan’s Ryukyu Islands, it also needs to be noted he identified Taiwan as closer to the Asian mainland than Okinawa and Guam, making it more practical and convenient for U.S. troops when intervention is needed.

Not everything the Trump Administration might do favors Taiwan though. The new president’s views on international trade and globalization might bring him into conflict, not only with China and other major Asian trading nations, but also with Taiwan.

At first, there is the proposed abolition of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, long seen by Taiwanese government circles as another international platform it can participate in to promote its status as a leading exporter and trader.

Then there are the next president’s well-known assaults on China and other nations as being unfair competitors.

What if Trump pushes Taiwan to legalize imports of U.S. pork with residues of the leanness drug ractopamine?

After President Ma Ying-jeou insisted on the opening of the Taiwanese market to U.S. beef with ractopamine residues shortly after his re-election in 2012, his standing in the opinion polls plummeted to a point where only 13 percent of Taiwanese approved of him. He never recovered, ending in the Kuomintang’s total defeat last year.

Tsai, whose poll figures have been sliding be it in a gradual way, will be caught between a rock and a hard place if the issue escalates. Either she will give in, infuriating powerful local pig farmers, or she will take a tough stance, risking that Trump changes his positive attitude toward Taiwan and threatens sanctions or worse.

“Unpredictable” is the description of choice for Trump, so even in Taiwan, his inauguration is no cause for triumphalism, only for cautious optimism that he will at least follow the line set out by his predecessors and by the pro-Taiwanese members of Congress on both sides of the political divide, or even better, tweak that line in a direction even more favorable to Taiwan’s future.